![]() “We felt that the margin of error became really too big for us to make a prediction that we could stand by and defend.” “The surveillance system was not adequate anymore to capture changes in Covid-19,” he said. It may be time to break out the masks against Covid, some experts sayĪll of the measures that factored into the model had stopped being reported or had changed in some way, said Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences and chief strategy officer of population health at the University of Washington. But the research institute paused that modeling in December.Ī mid adult female, standing outside places an N95 mask on her face for protection during the pandemic. “And we should be paying attention to it, because we are starting to see an increase.”įrom 2020 to 2022, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation produced regular estimates of Covid-19 case rates and projections for trends. “There is more transmission out there than what the surveillance data indicates,” said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Rates of severe disease may be staying at relatively low levels, but experts agree that there are probably more infections than the current surveillance systems can capture. “We have several folks down with Covid, unfortunately,” one health-focused nonprofit told CNN when seeking comment for this story. Here’s how to think about risk from the virus now "COVID continues to be a nasty virus.Crowd of people huddled together, overhead view - stock photo Daly and Newton/The Image Bank RF/Getty ImagesĬovid-19 has changed and so has our immunity. “Some judgment depending on your level of increased risk is really important now,” says Schaffner. This includes staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccines, testing if you have symptoms, staying home when sick, avoiding contact with sick people, wearing a mask, especially in crowded indoor spaces, and social distancing. In the meantime, people should assess their own risk on an individual basis and take precautions to protect themselves, the experts emphasize. ![]() While it may not match the BA.2.86 subvariant, it should be a good match for the Eris variant, which is currently dominant in the U.S. If you have yet to get the currently available booster, released last fall, then you should wait for the new shot, Azar advised. When the agency does make recommendations about who should get the booster this fall, the experts anticipate it will be for high-risk individuals - people over the age of 65, people with underlying heal conditions and the immunocompromised. The CDC has not yet released any firm guidance around booster doses for the fall. Food and Drug Administration, says Schaffner. Vaccine manufacturers are currently working on an updated COVID-19 booster, which will likely become available in mid to late September once it gets approved by the U.S. We have vaccines, we have an antiviral that works very well." However, Azar pointed out that we are more prepared now for an increase in COVID cases than we've ever been: "We’re in a different place than we were a few years ago. “We’ve always had the expectation that there was going to be a seasonality to COVID, kind of similar to flu, that we’re going to see this ebb and flow,” she added. “It’s really important to reinforce that the absolute number is still much, much lower than in various different peaks throughout the last couple of years," said Azar. There is no need to panic, the experts emphasize, and unlike past summer surges, this recent uptick remains relatively low. ![]() Is COVID on the rise again? Yes, but don't panic. "There are still plenty of people getting together in close proximity for prolonged periods of time to provide opportunities for highly contagious variants to spread," says Schaffner. A rebound in summer travel may also play a role. While summer is a time to enjoy the outdoors, many people are also seeking refuge from hot temperatures in the air conditioning indoors, he adds. ![]() "Just looking at the behavior of COVID in the past, there have been summer increases in each of the past three years, and we're seeing that now," says Schaffner, adding that this just seems to be the way the virus behaves. ![]()
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